Browse active geopolitical markets and make your predictions
13 markets
This market resolves YES if an officially announced ceasefire between Israel and Hamas holds without significant military violations for 30 consecutive days. The clock starts from the first day of the announced ceasefire.
This market resolves YES if Iran conducts a direct military strike on Israeli territory (including ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, or drone swarms launched from Iranian soil or Iranian-controlled territory) before June 1, 2025.
This market resolves YES if Hezbollah launches a large-scale ground invasion involving more than 1,000 fighters crossing the Blue Line into Israeli territory, resulting in significant territorial control or major IDF combat response.
Historical market. Did Iran fire ballistic missiles directly at Israel in October 2024?
Resolves YES if a formally agreed humanitarian corridor into Gaza remains operational for 30 or more consecutive days, with regular aid convoys entering.
Resolves YES if Qatar is credited as the primary mediator in a new, signed Gaza agreement involving hostage release and/or ceasefire terms.
Resolves YES if Houthi attacks on commercial shipping vessels in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden resume at a rate of 3+ attacks per week for two consecutive weeks.
This market predicts Iran's primary strategic response to any Israeli military strikes on Iranian-affiliated targets in 2025.
Predicts the primary security situation characterizing the West Bank in April-June 2025.
This market resolves YES if Israel Defense Forces begin a declared major military operation in Lebanese territory beyond the existing border exchange dynamics.
Resolves YES if the UN Security Council passes a new Chapter VII resolution specifically addressing the Gaza conflict with binding language.
Resolves YES if the US government announces and implements a new major sanctions package against Iran beyond existing measures.
Resolves YES if officially announced bilateral or multilateral talks specifically addressing Iran's nuclear program take place with US representation in 2025.
